Bold Cougar basketball predictions

Allan Lewis- Alestle Sports Editor

As hard to believe as it may be, the college basketball season tips off in less than two weeks.

It’s awesome baby.

SIUE begins its second season in Division I play Nov. 4, with an exhibition game against MacMurray College. Having never heard of MacMurray before, it should be quite the exhibition. I wouldn’t bet against us putting 100 on the scoreboard in this one.

This is the greatest time of the year, for me, as far as work goes. The Alestle sports team will be with the Cougars for two early-season road match-ups, Nov. 13 against Big Ten conference power Illinois, and again on Nov. 18 when the Cougars take on former head coach Marty Simmons and his Evansville Purple Aces of the Missouri Valley Conference.

The first week of regular season basketball gets even better with a visit by MVC power Illinois State to the Vadalabene Center on Nov. 15.

We may be in for a throttling against Illinois to open the season. That is almost expected of coach Forrester’s bunch. As long as half the SIUE campus wearing orange isn’t celebrating afterward I’ll be okay with that.

Bruce Webber’s bunch seems primed to make a run this season. They managed to squeak into the NCAA tournament last year as the #5 seed, only to lose to #12 Western Kentucky in a 12/5 upset anyone could have picked with their eyes closed. Although the Illini were not expected to do much last season, this year is different. Illinois has a solid class of three freshmen, highlighted by DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul to go along with a slew of returning players like Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis and Demitri McCamey. If there is one place the Illini are going to be weak this season, it’s going to be post play, with an inexperienced group of big men. At 6’9, Davis is probably the Illini’s biggest rebounding threat, but nonetheless SIUE is going to have their work cut out for them against an Illini team preparing likewise with two exhibitions under their belt, against Quincy, (Division II, Great Lakes Valley Conference) and Missouri Southern (D-II, MIAA.)

PREDICTION: Illinois 89 SIUE 55

U of I is too powerful for the Cougars, it’s going to be bad, but not a complete embarrassment.

The home-opener has potential for trouble as well, but the one saving-grace the Cougars have is home court. This means the Vadalabene Center has GOT to be packed. If we can squeeze 4,000 fans into that thing, it is going to be loud, and a hostile environment could shake up Illinois State, who last season played just three non-conference road games, and although they won all three, they were against lesser opponents and they narrowly escaped each one.
Here’s how ISU played non-conference away from Redbird Arena last year:

ISU 69 Wright State 61 (18-12, 12-6 Horizon League)
ISU 84 Southern Methodist 73 (9-20, 3-13 Conference USA)
ISU 72 Central Michigan 69 (11-18, 7-9 Mid American Conference)

ISU started the season 14-0, and finished the regular season at 22-8, but thanks to their weak non-conference schedule, had to settle for the NIT after an overtime loss in the championship game of the MVC tournament.

ISU lost two of their four biggest weapons from a year ago. Champ Oguchi averaged 15 points a game. He is gone. Emmanuel “All Day” Holloway’s day is done, and he put up ten a game.

ISU is not going to be nearly as good as they have been, and there is upset potential to this game, especially being at home for the Cougars. At Redbird Arena I would almost immediately write us off, but not here. Why ISU coach Tim Jankovich scheduled this game I have no idea. It remains that Osiris Eldrige is one of the most exciting college players I have seen in person, however, and Dinma Odiakosa is back after averaging eight and seven and a half playing the post for the Redbirds, but the Cougars have a fighting shot here. Lloyd Phillips could also do some damage for ISU.

Ultimately, ISU is the safe bet to win this game, but don’t hold that to heart, and if we win, everyone better be on the court afterward.

PREDICTION: Illinois State 61 SIUE 57

The third game of the season brings all the exciting story-lines we should already be used to. It is a tale of two schools with so many coaching connections you would think they branched off of each other to form two different schools. Or it’s just some stupid coincidence. Anyways, it breaks down like this.

Marty Simmons – Played at Evansville from 1986-1988

Lennox Forrester – Transferred to Evansville in 1990, injuries kept him from playing, was a student assistant with the team.

Marty Simmons – Assistant Coach at Evansville from 1990-1996 and 1998-2002.

Lennox Forrester – Joined the staff at Evansville after graduating in 1992, was an assistant with Simmons from 1992-2002, before moving on as an assistant at Bradley from 2002-2007.

Marty Simmons – Head Coach at SIUE from 2002-2007. Led the Cougars to the D-II Elite Eight in 2006.

Lennox Forrester – Replaces Simmons as SIUE Head Coach in 2007.

Marty Simmons – Named Evansville Head Coach in 2007

Mark Allaria – 2002 graduate of Evansville, Cougars assistant under Simmons 2002-2007, retained by Forrester. Started at Evansville from 2000-2002 with Forrester and Simmons on the coaching staff.

Ben Wierzda– Assistant Coach at Evansville. SIUE Alumnus (2000) Hired as an assistant at SIUE under Simmons from 2006-2007, and went with Simmons to Evansville in 2007.

It’s basically a college hoops soap opera in the twilight zone.

Evansville is a team on the rise under Simmons, although they will have to do a little bit of re-tooling after losing four starters. Pieter Von Tongeran is the only returning starter for the Aces, but he did play impressive against the Cougars last year, with 17 points and eight rebounds. Kavon Lacy scored 14 off the bench in Evansville’s 89-58 win on Dec. 2 last season. He is back as well.

This year it is going to be closer. We are better than we were last year, and Evansville, for all intensive purposes until they can show something without Shy Ely (who absolutely torched the Cougars last season, and was impressive in the MVC tournament against ISU) is worse.

For now, safety says the Aces win and drop us to 0-3.

PREDICTION: Evansville 83 SIUE 71

So, when do we get our first win? Mark your calenders, I am making a guarantee.
A bold guarantee.

November 21st at Ball State. (game four)

Last season, the Cardinals beat the Cougars by 12 WITHOUT leading scorer Mark Yelovich. This year with Yelovich the Cougars will go into Muncie and get a win. Last season, the Cougars first win also came against a team from the MAC in Western Michigan. The Cougars start the season with three tough games, Ball State starts with Valparaiso. Bottom line, Cougars win in Muncie before coming home and beating Lipscomb and IPFW back to back to start the season 3-3.

Final record: The Cougars will go 11-15.

This is a manageable schedule. We can play with North and South Dakota, IPFW is not the greatest team in the world, neither is Kennesaw State, and there are teams on the schedule we have beaten in the past in UMKC and SEMO. SEMO is just a sad team to boot.

This may be a little optimistic, but if all goes well, we could be looking at a .500 season once we are eligible for the OVC.

* The Feb. 20 bracketbuster game is not included in the 11-15 prediction.